Paper industry March report: paper product price release cost pressure

Cost-driven paper products have significantly increased prices. Short-term factors such as the Chilean earthquake in the first quarter and the strike in Finland led to tight supply of raw materials such as wood pulp, which led to a sharp increase in the prices of imported raw materials. Paper enterprises have significantly increased the price of white paper, double glue and other advantageous papers to pass the cost, and there is no conflict in downstream demand; and the demand for raw materials has been turned to domestic, the operating rate of domestic pulp mills has increased significantly; paper enterprises with homemade pulp lines have passed Pulping resists rising raw material prices. The resumption of the large-scale pulp mills that were discontinued due to the earthquake in Chile will alleviate the shortage of imported wood pulp.

The overall trend of raw materials: the price of imported pulp rose in March, and the price of imported waste paper rose sharply after the end of the month. In March, European pulp prices (in euros) and US dollar pulp prices both rose significantly. In March, the RMB showed a certain degree of depreciation against the currency exchange rate of the major producers. The price of imported major wood pulp brands (RMB) rose by 15.66% month-on-month. In March, the prices of US-based waste, European waste and daily waste papers were significantly higher in the first half of the month, and there was a correction at the end of the month, with monthly ratios of 2.76%, 0.22% and -3.94% respectively.

Production data: The cumulative output of paper products increased significantly year-on-year, and the cumulative output of pulp increased rapidly. In the past 10 years, the output of paper products has increased rapidly, with a cumulative growth rate of 22.22% in January and February. In the past 10 years, the pulp production has increased rapidly, and the cumulative growth rate in January and February has reached 41.40%, indicating that the recent surge in imported pulp prices has prompted the demand of paper mills to shift to domestic pulp mills, and domestic pulp production has increased rapidly.

The quantity and amount of paper imports resumed rapid growth, and the volume and amount of pulp imports slowed due to the surge in imported pulp prices. In January-February, the quantity and amount of paper imports resumed rapid growth, which were 21.05% and 31.56% respectively. In February, due to the soaring import price, the import of pulp was suppressed. The import volume in January-February fell by 8.00%; the cumulative growth of import value Slowed down to 29.09%. According to the paper classification, due to the negative impact of the Spring Festival, the monthly growth rate of copper plate, double glue and whiteboard paper in February was -2.49%, 69.50% (lower base) and -1.35%, respectively.

Companies with a higher proportion of self-made pulp have certain advantages in controlling costs, and a considerable number of small and medium-sized paper mills will be forced to stop production or even close down due to their inability to withstand high costs, resulting in tight supply of paper products, and leading enterprises will continue to advantage paper. Raise the price to cover the cost increase.

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