Origin and spread of paper
1. Everywhere paper
Paper is commonplace for modern people. Reading newspapers, books, writing notebooks, students' homework books, exam papers, and double-box boxes for "buy and buy" are inseparable from paper.
In this year's double eleven, the final transaction amount was locked at 213.5 billion, breaking through 200 billion for the first time. However, the problems have followed: some of the goods that were placed during the double eleventh period have not yet received the goods. What is more, the courier company has not been in the state of undelivered due to excessive orders.
The important pusher of "Double Eleven", the girls who love beauty, the steps after getting the express delivery are often like this: tear the small cardboard box of the laptop, cut the sealing tape, take out the filling... Finally, take out a small box of cosmetics. There are often several layers of paper packaging.
Carton piled up like a hill, has become a compulsory course after the double eleventh of each year. According to the relevant data, the use of cartons accounts for about 50% of the total express business volume. In 2015, China's express carton consumed a total of nearly 10 billion, and in 2017 the national express delivery industry consumed 19.2 billion boxes. It is certain that there will be more in 2018.
In addition to cardboard boxes, there are many uses for paper. In addition to white paper, there are colorful colored papers and shiny gold papers. The idiom "paper drunken fans" depicts the luxurious environment created by golden wallpaper.
Paper has long been tied to the lives of modern people. According to statistics, for each person's life, each person will consume an average of 500 pieces of paper from a wooden tree, which is about 1.5 million sheets of paper. According to this calculation, if the paper used for the whole life of 1.3 billion people in China will be piled up, it will be equivalent to the distance from the earth to the sun! Paper has long been tied to the life of modern people.
2. Development of papermaking
Before the invention of papermaking, people's writing materials were varied and varied:
Oracle bone: refers to tortoise shell and animal bone, mainly used in Shang Dynasty;
Gold: refers to all kinds of metal utensils, which were circulated in the pre-Qin period;
Stone: The literature on stone as the carrier includes 碣, monument, cliff carving, etc., from Qin Dynasty to modern times;
帛: Made of silk, the output is small, the price is expensive, and people can't afford it.
Bamboo and wood: bamboo pieces (wood chips) that grow bamboo or wood into a narrow shape, called bamboo slips (wood slips), can be used to record text, widely used in the pre-Qin period until the Three Kingdoms and Jin Dynasty.
Among these writing carriers, bamboo and wood are widely used because of their low price. But its shortcomings are also obvious: cumbersome. To what extent is it? According to historical records, the weight of bamboo slips read by Qin Shihuang every day reaches 120 kg (about 30 kg today).
(1) Khan Niudong
Confucius's thoughts were profound, and later generations respected him as a saint. At that time, 3,000 people followed him to study. Confucius once sorted out and revised the "Spring and Autumn" and so on. Later, over the ages, hundreds of people wrote many books with different opinions. These books piled up to fill the house, and they were shipped out to make the cows and horses tired and sweaty.
Although the weight of the book is very large, the amount of information actually carried is very limited because a few words cannot be written on a bamboo slip. The cumbersome bamboo slips have seriously hindered the spread of culture.
(2) Cai Lun invented the paper
The transfer of papermaking was improved by Cai Lun in the Eastern Han Dynasty of China, but there are also archaeological evidences that papermaking has existed for a long time. Cai Lun is only an important developer of papermaking, making papermaking more successful and less costly. The latest research shows that it may have been invented in China during the Western Han Dynasty.
In 1986, the ancient papers of the early Western Han Dynasty were discovered in Tianmao, Tianshui, Gansu Province. The papers with maps were unearthed in the tombs of the Wenjing period (179 before the 179-gong 141). This is the earliest paper in ancient China in archaeological discoveries. In the Eastern Han Dynasty, Cai Lun made technological innovations and switched to cheaper papers such as bark, rags, hemp and fish nets, which reduced the cost of papermaking and prepared conditions for the popularization of paper. It is precisely because of this that today people generally put the merits of inventing papermaking on the head of Cai Lun. People tend to remember those influential people and ignore those founders, but history is fair and will not miss any contribution.
(3) Luoyang paper expensive?
For a long time after the invention of papermaking, the text on paper still relied on manual writing because printing was not invented. A good word that can be written by Wang Youjun like a "Floating Cloud, a stunned dragon" is definitely a sign of a tying type. People who wrote ugly words like the author were embarrassed to show their words to others at that time...
In the Western Jin Dynasty, the famous "Sandu Fu" written by Zuo Si was recognized and liked by the people at that time. The wind of mutual copying and learning is prevalent. Luoyang's paper is also in short supply, and paper merchants naturally earn a lot of money. This is the origin of the word "Luoyang paper expensive", but this is only a superficial phenomenon, and there seems to be a deeper reason behind it.
Although Cai Lun improved the papermaking technology during the Eastern Han Dynasty, the use of paper was not quickly popularized. During the Three Kingdoms period, Cao Cao, Sun Quan, Zhuge Liang and others used bamboo slips, which indicated that paper was not popularized in the upper class. The bottom of the public opinion. This can be concluded that the paper did not replace the status of the wood slip.
And Zuo Si wrote "Sandu Fu" caused the situation of Luoyang paper expensive in the 280 years, only 60 years from the death of Cao Cao in the 220 years, in the ancient times of low communication power, it is difficult to imagine the use of paper in such a short time Can be widely used. What is certain is that paper has been written at the time, but it is not something that ordinary people can afford. Ordinary people have not seen much in the face of paper.
In addition, it is worth noting that the popularity of ancient culture is not the same as today. Most people in the society are illiterate. They can have a conditional reading culture. Most of them are the scholars who are paying attention to the ranks (equivalent to today’s middle class). Just as today's middle class likes to be a master of Bao Shi and Xicha, the scholars at that time also like to hold a group. When they see so many works recommended by opinion leaders, they want to copy and take a good look at the study, so that The price of paper has pushed up again. Moreover, Luoyang, as a first-tier city at that time, naturally has a relatively high price, and paper is more expensive than other places.
Therefore, it is not a hot article that makes Luoyang paper expensive, but Luoyang paper is expensive, and the heat article just added a fire.
No matter how good the content of the book is, how many celebrities recommend it, it is definitely not a pleasant experience to copy the book by hand. (Please raise your hand if you haven’t been punishable by the teacher in the elementary school.) An article of thousands of words was copied. Absolutely backache and leg cramps (unfortunately, there is no cover in the ancient times). If a book is tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of words, it will take a long time to copy it. According to this reasoning, the invention of paper is tantamount to the technique of killing dragons.
Then, when will the scale of paper be popular? This is due to another kind of invention, which is given by printing.
The Tang Dynasty invented the engraving and printing, which was widely used in the middle and late Tang Dynasty. In the Tang Dynasty, there was no such thing as “Luoyang Paper Expensiveâ€, and the demand for paper, such as the paper consumption of the National Publishing “Diamond Sutraâ€, was considerable. Although there was a movable type printing technique in the Song Dynasty, the widespread use of engraving was still due to the development of printing technology.
Papermaking is known as one of the four inventions of ancient China and is an important invention that promotes the transmission of human culture.
(4) Egypt: not a paper papyrus
Papyrus (English: Papyrus) is a widely used writing medium by ancient Egyptians. It is made from the stems of papyrus that was abundant in the Nile Delta at the time. Around 3000 BC, the ancient Egyptians began to use papyrus and exported this special product to ancient Mediterranean civilizations such as ancient Greece, and even to the remote European hinterland and West Asia.
The raw material for the production of papyrus is the stem of papyrus. First cut off the hard green skin of the stalk stem, cut the light inner stem into a strip of about 40 cm, and cut into thin slices. The cut slices are soaked in water for at least 6 days to remove the sugar contained. After that, the strips are discharged into a layer, and then another layer is placed thereon, and the two sheets are perpendicular to each other. The two sheets are also woven into a grid in a manner of crossing each other to form a fabric. Spread these thin slices in the middle of two layers of linen, smash them with wooden shovel, press the two slabs into one piece and squeeze out the water, then press the heavy objects such as stones (now press the scale with a machine), and use pumice after drying. After polishing, the finished product of the papyrus is obtained.
But what's interesting is that although the papyrus is the name of paper, it is not paper. Because according to the modern definition, papermaking requires the steps of beating, papermaking, and dewatering, and the manufacture of papyrus does not go through these steps, and therefore should not be attributed to the real "paper." It should not be confused with “papermaking†for its manufacture and use.
The spread of papermaking in the world has effectively promoted the development of global science and culture. It is precisely because of the paper that the cultural record has a cheap medium. If it weren't for the invention of paper, scientists like Newton couldn't afford to buy a book, let alone discover Newton's three laws, the law of universal gravitation. The road to the west of papermaking is also a road to civilization.
Having said that, the conclusion is clear: China invented the paper industry, which is an indelible contribution to the development of human civilization. However, compared with the ancient paper industry, both the paper classification and the papermaking technology have been “guns and gunsâ€. Papers of various performances and uses have emerged. Let's take a look at the classification of papers.
Paper classification
In daily office use, we commonly use six kinds of paper: coated paper, matte paper, white cardboard, white paper, double offset paper, writing paper, kraft paper, art paper, stickers, etc. After using such paper. Recycled paper formed by secondary processing has also become a common type of paper used in office printing.
Coated paper
Characteristics: smooth surface, high whiteness, uniform distribution of paper fibers, uniform thickness, small stretch, good elasticity and strong water resistance and tensile properties, good absorption and acceptance of ink . Coated paper has two types, single and double.
Main use: Mainly used for printing albums, covers, postcards, exquisite product samples and color trademarks.
2. Matte paper
Characteristics: Unlike the coated paper, the surface of the paper is matte, the reflection of light is not so strong, the paper fiber is evenly distributed, the thickness is good, the density is high, the elasticity is good, and the water resistance and tensile resistance are strong. Performance, the ink absorption and receiving state is slightly lower than the coated paper, but the thickness is slightly higher than the coated paper.
Main use: Mainly used for printing pictures, cards, postcards, exquisite product samples, etc.
3. White cardboard
Features: It is a thick and firm white cardboard. Divided into yellow core and white core.
Main use: Mainly used for printing business cards, postcards, invitations, certificates and printed materials for packaging and decoration.
4. Whiteboard paper
Features: The inner core is gray, the paper is thick and firm. It is divided into white and white on white.
Main use: Mainly used for printed materials for various packaging and decoration, as well as the cover of printed matter.
5. Offset paper
Features: Wide application and stable quality. According to the difference in the number of faces used, it is divided into single-adhesive paper and double-adhesive paper. For the purpose of saving paper, it is generally double-adhesive paper.
Main use: Mainly used for printing various instructions, envelopes, letter signs, etc. Dowling, which we often hear, is a kind of advanced double-adhesive paper, which was first produced by British Daolin Co., Ltd., hence the name. Nowadays, the books are mostly printed with Daolin paper, making Daolin paper a printing. Synonymous with paper. In addition, some high-end notebooks also use Daolin paper.
6. Writing paper
Features: Writing paper is paper for ink writing, and paper is not required to be written.
Main use: Mainly used for printing exercise books, diaries, forms and ledgers.
7. Kraft paper
Features: High tensile strength, single light, double light, stripe, no grain, etc. It is divided into white cowhide and yellow cowhide.
Main use: mainly used for wrapping paper, envelopes, paper bags, etc. The double eleven global "buy and buy" carton is made of kraft paper!
8. Art paper
Features: A wide variety.
Main use: Mainly used in exquisite book covers, albums, brochures, invitations, greeting cards, high-grade office paper, business cards, high-grade packaging paper, etc.
9. Sticker
Features: Due to the back side of the adhesive, the paper is thin. It is divided into mirror surface, copper plate, writing adhesive, etc., and the viscosity is different.
Main use: mainly used for trademark stickers, packaging, etc.
Development status of China's paper industry
The papermaking industry is an important basic raw material industry in China. It is rich in products, mainly based on cultural paper and packaging paper, and concentrated in production areas. It is a capital-intensive and resource-dependent industry with significant economies of scale and high pollution.
Industry chain
The papermaking industry processes the plant fibers into pulp by mechanical, chemical or a combination of the two, and then mixes the pulp and its additives by hand or machine to make paper or paper products into the industrial industry.
The paper industry is a typical long-chain industry with long chain, heavy assets and diverse needs: the typical paper industry chain is “forest-pulp-paper-downstream paperâ€. Among them, the cultivation of fast-growing forests for pulping requires the storage of forest land and cultivation. The mature period of forest trees is long, and it takes at least 5 years to harvest for production. The production of pulp and machine paper requires the purchase of paper-making equipment and the production capacity. 2-3 years or so; while the downstream demand growth rate slows down after China's rapid growth stage, and the cyclicality is gradually replacing growth.
According to the national economic industry classification standard, the papermaking industry mainly refers to the papermaking and paper products manufacturing industry, including the three sectors of pulp manufacturing, papermaking and paper products manufacturing; therefore, the papermaking industry has a high degree of correlation with some basic industries, such as forestry, Agriculture, printing, packaging, machinery manufacturing, chemicals, environmental protection, etc. In general, the papermaking industry is characterized by intensive technology funds, significant economies of scale, high resource dependence and consumption, and relatively dispersed industry concentration. Presenting the typical industry characteristics of “long chain, heavy assets, diverse demandâ€, the typical paper industry chain is “forest-pulp-paper-paper suppliesâ€, as shown in the following figure.
2. Production layout
As mentioned above, paper products can be divided into four categories: cultural paper, packaging paper, household paper and specialty paper according to their functions. Among them, cultural paper is newsprint, double-adhesive paper and coated paper. Mainly, the wrapping paper is mainly made of box corrugated and cardboard. According to the statistics of China Paper Industry's 2016 Annual Report of the China Paper Association, the production of cultural paper, packaging paper, household paper and specialty paper in 2016 accounted for 25.66%, 61.30%, 8.48% and 1.98% respectively. The consumption ratio was 24.60%, 63.34%, 8.20% and 1.80%, respectively.
Generally speaking, the paper industry is an important basic raw material industry in China. There are many types of products. The downstream involves many industries. The production areas are mainly concentrated in Shandong, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu. It is capital-intensive, economies of scale and resource-dependent. And the characteristics of high pollution, these characteristics are the characteristics of the domestic paper industry, but also the bottleneck of the industry.
(1) Capital intensive
Entering the paper industry faces many obstacles, such as financial barriers and policy barriers. Among them, the paper industry is relatively high in capital intensity, and needs to have more capital investment, and the exit cost is higher. Among them, equipment investment in the paper industry accounts for about 60% of the total investment; for every 10,000 tons of pulp production capacity, about 120-200 million yuan is needed; for every 10,000 tons of pulp and paperboard, it needs about 1.1-120 million yuan. The value of fixed assets occupied by the production value is similar to that of metallurgy, petroleum and chemical industries.
(2) economies of scale
For companies in the paper industry, the size of the economy is particularly important for its development. Paper-making enterprises with economies of scale have certain competitive advantages in enhancing risk resilience, improving bargaining power, reducing production and pollution control costs, and controlling sales channels.
(3) Resource dependent
The paper industry is a resource-dependent industry. Raw material pulp and waste paper pulp account for a high proportion of paper products. China's paper industry pulp mainly includes wood pulp, waste paper pulp and non-wood pulp. It has gradually formed a papermaking material structure mainly composed of wood fiber, waste paper and non-wood pulp fiber. Wood pulp is mainly used to produce high-grade white cardboard, office culture paper and household paper; waste paper is used to produce newsprint and packaging paper; non-wood pulp can be used to produce packaging paper and household paper, but The overall proportion is relatively small. Due to the lack of forest resources in China, the development of the packaging industry mainly depends on waste paper and commercial pulp in developed countries. At present, China's waste paper raw materials account for 65% of the total pulp consumption, and waste paper utilization accounts for 34.8% of the world's waste paper utilization.
The cost of raw materials in China's paper industry is relatively high. The cost of raw materials generally accounts for 65-75% of the average cost of paper manufacturing, and some enterprises even exceed 80%. Since 2011, the consumption of wood pulp and waste paper pulp in China's paper industry accounted for more than 85% of the total pulp consumption, reaching 93% in 2015. In 2016, the total pulp production in the country was 79.25 million tons, down 0.74% year-on-year; among them: wood pulp was 10.5 million tons, up 4.03% year-on-year, waste paper pulp was 63.29 million tons, down 0.14% year-on-year, non-wood pulp was 5.91 million tons, year-on-year decline. Compared with 13.08%.
In terms of consumption, the total consumption of pulp in the country in 2016 was 97.97 million tons, up 0.68% year-on-year; among them: 28.7% tons of wood pulp , accounting for 29% (19.8% tons of imported wood pulp, accounting for 19%; domestic wood pulp accounted for 10%) %); waste paper pulp is 63.29 million tons, accounting for 65% (24% imported waste paper pulp; 41% domestic waste paper pulp); non-wood pulp 5.91 million tons, accounting for 6%. The proportion of imported wood pulp has increased year by year, while the proportion of imported waste paper pulp to total waste pulp consumption has continued to drop slightly to 24%. 43% of pulp consumption is obtained by import, and the main source of wood pulp imports in China is Canada. Brazil, Indonesia, Chile, the United States, etc., China's wood pulp prices are determined by both import prices and self-production prices, especially the international wood pulp supply and demand pattern has a greater impact on domestic wood pulp prices.
According to the different sources of trees used in wood pulp, it can be divided into softwood pulp and broadleaf pulp . For the pulp obtained by the same pulping method, the hardwoods need to achieve a higher degree of beating than the conifers to obtain similar physical strength.
Since 2013, the price of needle-leaf pulp in the domestic market and the international market has been in a downward trend. From the domestic market point of view, in the first half of 2016, the spot prices of bleached leaf pulp and broadleaf leaf pulp began to differentiate, and the price of bleached needle and leaf pulp began to rise slowly. In 2017, the trend of 2016 continued to continue and the increase was very high. Broadleaf pulp began to rise in the third quarter of 2016 and continued into the third quarter of 2017. From the price trend of imported wood pulp, the average unit price of imported softwood pulp and broadleaf pulp began to increase at the end of 2016.
(4) High pollution level
The paper industry is a high-energy, high-pollution industry. Papermaking wastewater is a refractory wastewater. It mainly comes from two production processes of pulping and papermaking in the production of paper industry. The body can be divided into three types: pulping wastewater, middle-stage wastewater and paper machine white water.
The main production process of the pulping process is the black liquor of the subtractive pulping and the red liquor of the acid pulping, which belongs to the ultra-high concentration organic wastewater. The main components of the waste liquid produced by subtractive pulping are lignin and carbohydrate degradation products, pigments, residual alkali and other dissolved substances; the middle stage wastewater is the wastewater produced by washing and bleaching the pulp after the pulp black liquor is extracted, this part The amount of wastewater and high total organic load are the main part of papermaking wastewater. The main production of papermaking is white water, which mainly contains fine fibers, fillers and rubber compounds. Due to the low load, most paper mills currently use white water for reuse or partial reuse.
Since 2015, the state has issued a series of environmental protection laws and regulations. Water environment governance directly refers to the paper industry. The strictening of environmental protection policies has brought huge cost pressures to the paper industry, and the paper industry will continue to develop in a large-scale direction.
The contradiction of China's paper industry -
Low-end production of excess energy, high-end products rely on imports
1. "Twelve sins" in China's paper industry
The Chinese paper industry still has the following characteristics:
1) Raw materials have become an obstacle to the development of the industry; wood pulp is the main raw material for papermaking, subject to shortage of raw materials (long regeneration cycle), and has to import wood pulp or high-grade waste paper.
2) The procurement of wood is seasonal and cannot be purchased as planned. There are complex settlement methods such as the cube diameter of the gauge or the dry weight (after the wood or wood chips have been tested and deducted).
3) The waste generated in the production process of the papermaking industry needs to be treated, and energy conservation and emission reduction are required.
4) The paper industry belongs to the midstream raw material industry and is a typical supply and demand enterprise. The downstream demand market has a great impact on its profit.
5) In recent years, some products of paper industry have overcapacity, mature technology, low barriers to entry, and fierce competition, resulting in low added value of the industry.
6) The product variety is relatively fixed, but there are many subdivision specifications. Except for the conventional products, which are predicted to be produced according to the planned market, other products should be produced according to customer requirements, which poses a severe challenge for the enterprises with machine.
7) Periodically replace the key consumables of the paper machine, such as filters.
8) The production of papermaking enterprises is continuous, the equipment is numerous and intensive, and the maintenance and repair tasks of the equipment are heavy.
9) Due to the relatively short production cycle and relatively tight capital pressure, it is necessary to strictly control the risk of shipment and receivable.
10) Imported waste paper has a long procurement cycle. In order to reduce the procurement risk, it is necessary to monitor the status of the goods.
11) The cost accounting is extensive, and the main raw material cost allocation cannot be accurately distributed to different products, resulting in monthly cost data changes and lack of effective and accurate accounting methods. For example, various finished papers must be pulped and pulped before production. How to accurately measure the measurement and calculation of the pulp consumed by each subsequent process is more difficult in terms of product cost.
12) The water filter net of the paper machine net section, the boot belt conveyor belt of the press section, the dry net of the cadre and the like. These are all consumables of paper machines. The price of a single sheet is hundreds of thousands or even millions, and the service life is between one month and half a year. It is commonly known as valuable management.
It is precisely because the paper industry has the characteristics of high fixed cost and significant scale advantage, so once the industry's profit margin has risen, the companies in the industry will not be able to resist the impulse to expand production capacity. Therefore, this industry is always in a cycle of “supply in short supply – capacity expansion – overcapacity – de-capacity – in short supplyâ€.
Before 2007, the paper industry was in short supply, paper prices rose; the economic boom in 2008 gave birth to the expansion of paper demand, and the industry's production capacity expanded rapidly; in 2011 and after, as the industry's production capacity slowly exceeded the market demand, it formed a serious Excess capacity, paper companies almost entered the cold winter at the same time; in 2013, the industry finally entered the stage of de-capacity, this round of de-capacity can be described as unprecedented: small paper companies slowly closed down, the survival of paper companies have almost stopped them Fixed assets investment.
Under the strict de-capacity control, since 2016, the paper industry has finally waited for its own spring, but just as the coal price rose from 2015 to 2016, the downstream power plants complained that the spring of the paper industry came, but downstream. The industry is facing a cold winter.
2. The story of spring: pulling the whole body
From 2016 to the first half of 2018, if you want to select key Chinese characters in the paper industry, I am afraid that "up" will rank second, and no word will dare to rank first.
In just two years, the price of paper has risen sharply, almost to the price of a day, comparable to sitting in a helicopter. There are even industry traders who feel that "there is no money to get the goods." The previous prepaid deposit + cash on delivery model has no play at all, even if it is directly paid for the full amount, but also to match the character to get the goods. Its popularity is comparable to the rush of housing in first- and second-tier cities. Some people even sighed that "the stocks are not as good as the papers"! The dealers who have warehouses even earned a lot of money by hoarding paper.
The price increase of paper not only makes many publishing units and printing companies look down on paper. And it affects all aspects of the national economy and people's livelihood. As a senior reading enthusiast, I deeply feel that the price of the book is getting more and more expensive. The price of a book of the same small size and thickness has increased by more than half compared with a few years ago. Buying a book is almost a luxury. . According to statistics, before 2016, when paper prices remained basically stable, paper accounted for about 50% of the cost of a single book. Since 2017, when the average paper price has increased to about 2,000 per ton, the proportion of paper is above 60%.
At the same time, the publishing industry and printing have also suffered a lot. Because the industry contract is signed once a year, this means that the cost of rising raw materials for paper can only be eaten by the family. Under such pressure, the publishing industry is bleak. A coincidental example is that in 2016, when paper prices rose the most crazy, many paper media chose to stop publication, including many media such as "Oriental Morning Post" and "Jinghua Times". Although there are many reasons for the suspension of publication, the rise in paper costs is clearly a catalyst:
The price increase of paper occurred in the context of de-capacity, and the speculation of speculative funds played a role in fueling the fire.
3. Price return
But "Thirty years of Hedong, thirty years of Hexi": Compared with last year, this year's paper price can only be described as a cool. So far, this year's waste paper prices have fallen by a third from 3,000 per ton. Corrugated paper prices have also fallen for more than a dozen weeks. Nine Dragons Paper, which was run by Zhang Yin, the former female richest man in China, once said in the performance briefing in September that the price of paper will be raised in October. However, the fact is that at the end of the month, Tianjin Xiaolong released the news that the cardboard and corrugated paper were lowered by 300/ton.
In November, just after the opening of the month, due to the lack of prosperous double-season peak season, the prospect of foreign trade exports is not optimistic, such as box paper, corrugated paper and white cardboard have news of price cuts. Among them, Xiaolong Dongguan, Quanzhou, Taicang, and Tianjin four-base wrapping paper collectively cut prices by 100-300/ton, and it is widely believed that the market will usher in a new round of price cuts. Up to now, the national cardboard and corrugated paper have fallen to freezing point, and the individual paper mills in Dongguan do not include the tax price of 3,000. At the end of the 8th year, the price of Chinese wrapping paper is increasingly showing a slap in the air.
The storm seems to be coming soon.
The current status quo of paper enterprises, supply and demand is still serious, basically the national elimination can not keep up with the increase in production capacity, some paper types due to the release of earlier production capacity, the two years in the digestion and elimination of supply is still far from demand. Because of the relatively good market, household paper and wrapping paper, etc., have increased investment in new capacity in recent years. Now, the situation is also very pessimistic. Now that the situation is going on, the market is completely panicked, and the paper dealers are caught off guard, in order to stop the shipment of the bee...
Vicious circle, the wall is pushed down by everyone. The industry really has to change, but it is not difficult to do business, but the logic and ideas for doing business should be changed completely!
In this year's downturn, small and medium-sized paper mills are rushing to stock shipments, and the price of waste paper fluctuates drastically. Paper companies are uncomfortable. The more prominent problem is that the reshuffle of the paper industry is inevitable, and it will only be suspended after a certain amount of paper enterprises and paper merchants have been eliminated.
The future of the paper industry
1. The market is shrinking - the need for paper is decreasing
As mentioned earlier in this article, many people can't remember when they used to write with a pen. They haven't read a paper version for a long time. They go out by train, plane, and after booking online, gently Even with the widespread popularity of electronic payment, many people have become accustomed to not having banknotes.
Back in 1993, the Lunar New Year, the youngest president of the United States after World War II took office. In the same year, the United States officially announced that "Star Wars" was dead.
That year, an elder with black-rimmed glasses was arranged to visit the Boeing Company in Seattle when he visited the United States. What surprised him the most is that there are hundreds of people in the design department, but they can't see a drawing. All the work is done by computer and network.
In contrast, the domestic design level at that time, as the elders felt back when they returned to their old clubs after 16 years, they were still in the state of drawing on the drawing paper with a duck-billed pen. If one accidentally, the ink leaked onto the paper. The entire drawing can only be scrapped. For China, where the typewriter is still a rarity, paperless office seems to be a distant myth. This is the real gap between China and the United States at that time.
Today, the domestic design industry has already changed its guns and achieved a paperless design. Even in the undergraduate class, CAD has become a compulsory subject. If you use drawings to draw pictures, you will feel like a world. For the drawings industry, there is no doubt that there is a very small market.
In the face of the rapid development of society, the paper industry seems to be thinning, and the soaring paper price is only a return to light...
Goose, is that really true?
2. The future of the paper industry - the world of the leading industry
As a famous entrepreneur said, there is no sunset industry, only the sunset business. In order to transform and upgrade and adjust the structure of any traditional industry, it is necessary to have the spirit of breaking the boat, the spirit of breaking the wrist of the strong man, the determination, the loss caused by the slow pain, and the consequences are more serious. In contrast, as a typical steel industry in the traditional industry, it has experienced a round of such nirvana.
Compared with small businesses, the advantages of the company are obvious:
1. Environmental advantages: The paper industry's high energy consumption and high pollution characteristics are well known, while the environmental protection will not change. The type of enterprises usually invest in funds for environmental protection, while small enterprises will be partially eliminated, and industry concentration. It is expected to gradually increase.
2. Scale advantage: Paper prices fluctuate very much. Small enterprises are often unable to withstand fluctuations due to limited conditions such as capital, warehousing, and turnover, and enterprises have significant innate advantages in this respect.
3. Policy advantages: Among the current sources of waste paper raw materials required by the paper industry, 36% are from imported waste paper, and 64% are from domestic recycling. In 2016, domestic waste paper was about 50 million tons, and imported waste paper was 28.5 million tons. China has successively launched policies and actions such as the “Hedgerow Action†and the reform of the fixed waste import management system. As a result, China’s waste paper imports have experienced a three-year negative growth since 2013.
The adjustment of the import waste management catalogue, which was implemented at the end of 2017, has an impact on papermaking, in which unsorted waste paper imports will be banned. Such waste paper accounts for about 20% of total waste paper imports, mainly for SMEs. The production of whiteboard paper, so the impact on whiteboard paper from the production point of view is the most, the impact on waste paper such as 8#, 11#, which is mainly used by enterprises, is limited. In addition, the policy also stipulates that enterprises that apply for the import of waste paper licenses should use waste paper as raw materials for production. The production capacity of the enterprise should be no less than 300,000 tons/year, which will increase the concentration of the industry and accelerate the clearing of unqualified production capacity. .
The data also shows that the prosperity of the paper industry is still continuing: from the 2018 semi-annual report disclosed by various paper-making enterprises, there are 20 paper-making listed companies with 15 year-on-year growth, the most growth is Mei Liyun, an increase of 86.71%; The five companies fell year-on-year, and Qifeng new materials fell the most, down 51.89% year-on-year. The top ten listed companies in the paper industry are Chenming Paper, Shanying Paper, Sun Paper, Bohui Paper, Huatai, Yueyang Linzhi, Jingxing Paper, Zhongshun Jierou, Yibin Paper and Xianhe. Shares, the total profit of these 10 listed companies is 8.426 billion.
Judging from the current situation, the multi-paper enterprises only have to stop the insured price and suspend the acquisition to cope with the impact of the market. Obviously, it has not yet reached the final battle. At present, the problems faced by the domestic papermaking economy are still quite a lot, and the paper enterprises have stepped into the dilemma of dilemma.
On the one hand, the rapid development has led to an extremely imbalance between supply and demand, and some paper types have serious overcapacity. Although the country has eliminated the backward production capacity every year, it still cannot keep up with the speed of new production capacity. The products are sold at low prices, many companies are in the market, and the more they sell, the more losses or losses. On the other hand, the improvement of environmental protection requirements, enterprises need to introduce high-tech, new equipment, which is not a small investment, paper companies have begun to appear "crisis."
Who can laugh at the end in the cold winter?
On November 2, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (hereinafter referred to as “the last periodâ€) issued a pulp futures contract and related rules. The pulp industry has a high degree of marketization, diverse market players, frequent price fluctuations, and strong demand for corporate hedging. Introducing pulp futures and exerting the price discovery and hedging functions of the futures market have important practical significance for enhancing the pricing power of China's agricultural and forestry products enterprises and providing risk management tools for related industrial chain enterprises. Poker, which is a gas station for industry and financial people, is also paying close attention to the listing of pulp futures.
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