For cotton, what did the Central No. 1 document say this year?

This year's Central Document No. 1 was officially announced on the 19th. This document is entitled "Several Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Adhering to the Priority Development of Agriculture and Rural Areas to Do a Good Job of "Three Rural Issues"". It is the 16th consecutive year that the No. 1 document focuses on the work of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers".

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Which of these involves the “cotton” policy?

The No. 1 Document of the Central Committee pointed out that the implementation of important agricultural product security strategies. Strengthen the top-level design and system planning, base on domestic supply of important agricultural products such as grain, coordinate the use of international and domestic markets and resources, scientifically determine the level of domestic important agricultural products, improve the security system, and improve domestic security.

On the basis of improving quality and efficiency, we will consolidate the production capacity of cotton, oil, sugar and natural rubber. Accelerate and support agriculture to go global, strengthen the "One Belt, One Road" agricultural international cooperation, actively expand the domestic shortage of agricultural products, expand diversified import channels, foster a group of multinational agricultural enterprise groups, and raise the level of agricultural cooperation.

In addition, it also mentioned the restoration and start-up of Xinjiang high-quality cotton production base. This plays an important role in stabilizing domestic cotton production.

Relevant experts said that China's current economic operation is stable and changeable, and the external environment is complicated and severe. The economy is facing downward pressure, and the risks and difficulties are obviously increasing. If there is a big landslide in agriculture, there will be problems in the supply of food and important agricultural products, which will not only bring about rising prices, but also cause the economic development to fall into a passive situation of “downward” growth and downward price, and will affect social stability. In response to the international trade pressure of agricultural products, it is necessary to increase the output and quality of agricultural products and reduce costs, thereby enhancing international competitiveness. At the same time, firmly grasp the initiative of importing agricultural products, expand import channels, better coordinate the use of international and domestic markets and resources, scientifically determine the level of domestic important agricultural products, and improve domestic security.

Focus

About cotton

The second part is “compacting the agricultural foundation and ensuring the effective supply of important agricultural products”, and the second is “complete the task of building high-standard farmland”, which refers to “recovering the construction of Xinjiang high-quality cotton production base”. The industry believes that Xinjiang's natural and policy conditions are conducive to high-quality cotton production. The mechanized production scale, field management level and yield of Xinjiang cotton have reached world-class levels, further consolidating the construction of Xinjiang cotton quality production base to ensure the supply of domestic high-quality cotton. Significance. Xinjiang cotton production in 2018/19 is expected to be about 5.11 million tons, accounting for 92% of the national total (investigation data). According to industry insiders, the probability of Xinjiang cotton target price direct subsidy policy continuing to postpone after the expiration of 2019/20 is too large.

The second part is “compacting the agricultural foundation and guaranteeing the effective supply of important agricultural products”. Article 5 “Implementing the important agricultural product security strategy”, which mentions “consolidating the production of cotton, oil, sugar and natural rubber on the basis of improving quality and efficiency. Capacity. Accelerate and support agriculture to go global, strengthen the “One Belt, One Road” agricultural international cooperation, actively expand domestic imports of scarce agricultural products, expand diversified import channels, foster a group of multinational agricultural enterprise groups, and raise the level of agricultural cooperation.

The industry believes that subject to environmental, policy and industrial pattern objective constraints, domestic cotton production and demand gap of about 3 million tons / year, previously relying on 894,000 tons of import quotas and reserve cotton to reduce production and demand gap, the current national reserve cotton The de-stocking task has been completed, and the stock of cotton stocks is only about 2.75 million tons. In the long run, cotton is a shortage of agricultural products in China. It is expected that there will be a high probability of issuing cotton import quotas in 2019. This is good for the international cotton market, and the change in international trade flows may narrow the internal and external price gaps. At present, there is no news of reserve cotton in and out of the market, and there is no news of additional import quotas. Under the background of Sino-US trade disputes, industrial policies are full of uncertainties. It is expected that these policies will have a high probability of ending in Sino-US economic and trade consultations. Only after the introduction.

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