Source: Network Synthesis
The price of waste paper in January was up and down. With the start of the construction of the manufacturers, the paper mills led by Xiaolong and Liwen successively raised the purchase price of waste paper. Zhuo Chuang Information analyzed that the price of waste paper will fall back in 2019. The industry said that waste paper will be completely reduced to paper mills in 2019, and prices continue to fluctuate.
At the time of centralized construction, Xiaolong and Lee & Man raised the scrap price of the first country by 50-100/ton.
February 13 and 14 were the days when the carton industry started to work. On the two days, the national waste market began to recover. Dozens of paper companies, led by Xiaolong, Liwen and Shanying, raised the price of waste paper by 50-100/ Tons, among them, Zhejiang Shanying and Jingxing Paper raised the price of waste paper for two consecutive days.
Henan Taikang Longyuan Paper: From February 14th, the price of waste paper was raised by 50/ton.
Henan Longyuan Paper Industry: From February 14th, the price of waste paper was raised by 50/ton.
Jiangsu Taicang Xiaolong Paper: From February 14th, the yellow waste category was raised by 50/ton.
Jiangxi Jiujiang Liwen Paper Industry: Starting from February 14, the first grade is raised by 100/ton, and the general paper is raised by 50/ton.
Zhejiang Jiaxing Mountain Eagle (Ji'an) Paper: From February 13th, the yellow board was raised 50/ton; from February 14th, the yellow board was raised 50/ton and the white waste was raised 80/ton.
Zhejiang Jiaxing Jingxing Paper: From February 13th, the yellow board was raised 50/ton, the chemical fiber tube was raised 100/ton, and the office waste paper remained unchanged. From February 14th, the price of waste paper was raised by 50/ton.
Fujian Zhangzhou Youlida Paper: From February 14th, the domestic waste paper purchase price was raised by 50/ton.
Jiangsu Wuxi Rongcheng Paper: From February 13th, the price of waste paper was raised by 50/ton.
Zhejiang Jiaxing Dayang Paper: From February 13th, the price of waste paper was raised by 50/ton.
Understand the trend of national waste, the six major statuses that should be mastered
Zhuo Chuang Information Analysis, the current environment of the national waste yellow paper market is the most concerned.
1. Sino-US trade disputes. As far as the development trend of Sino-US trade frictions in 2019 is concerned, there may be two stages of stalemate, aggravation and easing, and suspension. If the trade friction between China and the United States is moderated and suspended in 2019, it will undoubtedly make the packaging paper industry chain out of operational pressure. Regaining the rising expectations, the price of national waste yellow paper will return to high level, and may even hit the previous high. However, Zhuo Chuang believes that the probability of Sino-US trade friction stalemate and intensify in 2019 is the biggest, so Zhuo Chuang Information uses this as a background to predict the price of 2019.
2. Reform of the import management system for solid waste. The reform of the solid waste import management system was officially established in April 2017. In July 2017, the Ministry of Ecology and Environmental Protection sent a letter to the WTO indicating that the quantity and types of solid waste imports will be gradually reduced. Since August 2017, the reform of the import management system for solid waste has continued to advance. In 2018, a new import license approval system was introduced. On March 1, 2018, the new standard for import waste paper with a miscellaneous rate of no more than 0.5% was implemented. On June 24, 2018, the State Council promulgated the "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Strengthening Ecological Environment Protection and Resolutely Fighting Pollution Prevention and Control", and proposed to "enhance the prevention and control of solid waste pollution." It is a total ban on the entry of foreign garbage, cracking down on smuggling, drastically reducing the types and quantities of solid waste imports, and striving to achieve zero import of solid waste by the end of 2020.
As of press time, in 2019, the amount of waste paper import approval has been publicized in three batches. According to the comparison of the first three batches, in the list of the first three batches of paper mills, a single paper mill or base has only obtained one approval opportunity, that is, the approval of waste paper import quota in 2019. It may be changed to a paper mill in the first quarter.
3. Market trading is in a recovery trend. Obviously, the Spring Festival blocks market trading. After the Spring Festival, market trading will inevitably resume slowly. Then, the recovery of trading may bring about an increase in prices.
4. The willingness of mainstream paper mills will try to cash. In terms of finished paper sales, the trend of waste paper prices is still maintained by the mainstream paper mills. In line with the recovery of the post-holiday atmosphere, mainstream paper mills may try to price.
5. New capacity is put into production. Before the Spring Festival, the raw material reserve work before the new capacity of Shandong Bohui Paper was launched, which once triggered the upward trend of the price of scrap yellow paper. Then, in the later period, we will focus on the second-phase production plan of Bohui Paper in May-June, and we also need to pay attention to the production dynamics of Chongqing Xiaolong's new production capacity.
6. Repair of oversold mood in the finished paper market. Then in the fourth quarter of 2018, the purchase interest of the secondary plant was seriously lower than the normal level, and the price of the finished paper market was oversold. If there is a certain replenishment behavior in the secondary plant, the price of finished paper will likely rebound and drive the price of waste paper to rebound.
Industry people: Waste paper will be completely reduced to paper mills in 2019
Zhuo Chuang Information predicts that the price of national waste yellow paper in the first half of 2019 may show a trend of decline in the first half of 2019, mainly because the speculation in the market will gradually heat up after the Spring Festival and drive the national waste yellow plate. Paper prices fluctuated. In the second half of the year, the price of national waste yellow paper will fluctuate and fall. As confirmed by the top of the technology, the market's bearish mentality will be highly unified. The speculative operation of the national waste yellow sheet paper market will be fully exited. Imported waste paper pulp, imported semi-finished paper, imported finished paper In the context of an increase in the number, the price of national waste yellow paper will fall sharply and sharply.
According to the "carton theory" analysis, the waste paper industry will be completely reduced to paper mills in 2019, and prices continue to fluctuate.
The price of waste paper: When the price of waste paper rises, the base paper will surely chase it up. The chase is not to pass the cost but to push the price of the plateau. The “cost increase†has become the rigid reason for the price increase of the original paper, but only The inconsistent price increase of waste paper and base paper has increased the gross profit of paper mills.
The decline in waste paper: Of course, the price increase of waste paper will not exist for a long time. According to the 18 years of operating experience, usually the rise and fall will not exceed 7 days, and even 2-3 days will reverse each other. In the process of falling prices, it is often the waste paper that falls below the original paper at least 2-3 days before falling. In the process of such price declines, the paper mills use the waste paper to fall in price and the purchase price is slow. Falling the original paper sales price, the original paper is still a big profit.
In this way, waste paper has become a booster for price hikes. The buffer of falling prices, paper mills are both ups and downs! So the erratic waste paper becomes the norm!
Editor in charge: Ge Hongyan
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