[ppzhan Abstract] In recent years, under the pressure of the environment, people's awareness of environmental protection has continued to build and develop. As a highly polluting paper industry, there is an urgent need for transformation and upgrading, which directly promotes the improvement of the entry threshold to ensure the green development of the industry.
The originator of China's paper industry, whether it is from pulp imports or paper exports, China's paper market is very large, but in an environment that is not green enough, how big a market has hidden pollution. Although in recent years, China has been emphasizing energy conservation and emission reduction on the one hand, but the results have been minimal. Nowadays, many cities that pay attention to environmental protection have begun to ban paper production lines in the main urban area.
As a large paper production base in the east, Fuyang has now made structural improvements to verify the backward production capacity elimination and energy conservation and emission reduction, and achieved good results. According to Yongtai Group, Fuyang has accelerated the elimination of backward production capacity since 2010, which has reduced the number of paper mills from around 500 in 2010 to less than 200 at present. Yongtai currently has four paper production lines with a capacity of less than 550,000 tons. During this period, Yongtai upgraded its production technology and reduced its coal consumption per ton from 670 kg of standard coal to 340 kg (down 49%), and the electricity consumption per ton was reduced from 580 kWh to 375 kWh (down 35.3%). It has been reduced from 60 tons to 8.5 tons (down 85.8%) and has become a major local paper producer.
Higher entry barriers Since 2010, small production lines with a capacity of less than 10,000 tons have been forced to shut down. At present, Fuyang has begun to phase out production lines with a capacity of less than 30,000 tons. Yuanda Paper is a medium-sized local paper producer with a total capacity of 180,000 tons. It tells us that in addition to environmental and emission standards, it is almost impossible for paper companies to expand their capacity unless they withdraw from the market. The enterprise buys the corresponding share. The current share transfer price is 5 million yuan per 10,000 tons of production capacity, much higher than the previous price.
Reduced inventory levels; structural improvement will take time. According to Yongtai Group, the normal inventory level of Fuyang Base Paper Mill is about 30 days. At present, Yongtai's inventory level has been reduced to a level of around 20 days, which is lower than the previous year. Great inventory levels have also fallen from a few months ago. Although the structural improvement of the industry is a long-term trend, both companies have indicated that they are not optimistic about the price reversal in the short term because the industry as a whole is still in a state of overcapacity. We believe that the recent decline in inventory is due to the effect of replenishing stocks and peak seasons, and the implementation of supply control requires a process.
It can be seen that with the strengthening of environmental protection, the industry will establish a higher barrier to entry, and more importantly, a new pricing mechanism will be established in the next few years.
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